# Failing to Understand the Exponential, Again

> Explore the pitfalls of misunderstanding exponential growth and its implications in various fields. Learn to navigate this crucial concept effectively.

- URL: https://workingbruno.com/links/20250930-failing-to-understand-the-exponential-again/
- Published: 2025-09-30
- Source: https://www.julian.ac/blog/2025/09/27/failing-to-understand-the-exponential-again

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Julian Schrittwieser examines why public debate keeps missing the exponential curve in AI progress. He highlights METR’s time‑horizon evals and OpenAI’s GDPval to show consistent capability gains across software and broader occupations—and argues that simple extrapolation points to near‑term, real economic impact. A clear, grounded read on where we’re headed.